State Department’s 2020 report on human rights practices in Turkey, It not only provided an opportunity to put a definitive end to the army’s political influence but also triggered sweeping purges against alleged enemies of the government. The failed coup of July 2016 marked another inflection point. In the lead-up to the presidential elections of August 2014, the two rounds of legislative elections in 2015, the constitutional referendum of April 2017, and the presidential elections of June 2018, the following developments took place: the rights of the opposition were progressively curtailed increasingly nationalistic narratives were employed to rally the country around the flag and the leadership the reconciliation process with the Kurdish minority was abandoned and, at times, Turkey’s operations in Syria were used to sway public opinion, bolster the country’s mood, and weaken political opponents. Since 2013, the process of democratic erosion has gone hand in hand with key electoral moments. Freedom House estimated that 45,000 police officers and 2,500 judges and prosecutors involved in the investigation were reassigned.
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Believing these arrests to be a political attack orchestrated by Islamic preacher Fethullah Gülen, who was until then his political ally, then prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ordered a series of purges. Months later, at the end of 2013, a corruption scandal led to the arrest of dozens of people connected to the AKP. They remain the largest protest movement against the Turkish government. They quickly transformed into an unprecedented wave of mass demonstrations across the entire country. The Gezi Park civic protests, which started in May of that year, began as a sit-in against the government’s plan to eliminate a park. Although no single event set this downward trend, a few turning points can be identified.įirst, 2013 was a crucial year. The European Commission’s 2021 report on Turkey, issued on October 19, was the most negative ever, stressing the continuation of democratic backsliding. Recent Developments Steady Decline in the Rule-of-Law Architectureĭomestically, Turkey’s rule-of-law architecture has steadily deteriorated in the past ten years.
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Such responses in turn elicit nationalist statements across the political spectrum, making any speculation about Turkey’s political future somewhat hazardous.Īfter reviewing recent developments and assessing the main drivers of Turkey’s current policies, this article will present three scenarios that European and Western leaders can theoretically expect from Ankara in the short and medium terms, scenarios they should prepare for.
However, having engaged in unprecedented military and diplomatic initiatives in 2019–2021, the country’s leadership is subject to strong reactions and condemnations from its partners.
Turkey’s direction depends on the votes of its citizens, not on what foreign observers think or desire. Foreign analysts and the media have long asked “Where is Turkey going?” Now, as the country reaches nineteen years of uninterrupted rule by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the rhetorical question has morphed into a vivid domestic debate on Turkey’s future.
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